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Teacher Salaries and Racial Inequality in Educational Attainment in the Mid-Century South (with Ethan Lewis). [Latest version, Online appendix] [Summary in The NBER Digest] Journal of Labor Economics, 42(S1): S95-S131, April 2024.
Does Universal Preschool Hit the Target? Program Access and Preschool Impacts. Journal of Human Resources, Journal of Human Resources 58(1), 1-42, January 2023. Revised version (August 2020). [Coverage in The New York Times (June 2018, Apr. 2020, Nov. 2020, Nov. 2021), The Hechinger Report, Forbes, Quartz, The Economist, VOX]
Who Needs a Fracking Education? The Educational Response to Low-Skill Biased Technological Change (with Ayushi Narayan `14). ILR Review, 75(1), 56-89, January 2022. [Revised version, May 2020.] [Coverage in The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Salon, Business Insider]
Early Childhood Education in the United States: What, When, Where, Who, How, and Why. Chapter 2 in Routledge Handbook of the Economics of Education, ed. Brian McCall. London and New York: Routledge, 30-72, December 2021. [NBER Working Paper 28722, April 2021.] [Coverage in VOX.]
A Century of the American Woman Voter: Sex Gaps in Political Participation, Preferences, and Partisanship Since Women's Suffrage (with Na'ama Shenhav). Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34(2), 24-48, Spring 2020. [NBER Working Paper 26709, January 2020.] [Ungated version, January 2020.] [Coverage in The Atlantic, FiveThirtyEight, AEA Research Highlights Podcast]
Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency and Personal Income Taxes After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (with Ethan Lewis). Journal of Public Economics, 172, 135-150, April 2019. [NBER Working Paper 24872, revised November 2018.]
Public Investments in Child Care. In The 51%: Driving Growth Through Women's Economic Participation, eds. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach and Ryan Nunn. Washington, D.C.: The Hamilton Project, 123-142, October 2017. [Featured in this Oct. 2019 Hamilton Project Strategy Paper.]
First in the Class? Age and the Education Production Function (with Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach). Education Finance and Policy, 11(3), 225-250, Summer 2016. Pre-publication version (April 2015). [Coverage in The New Yorker]
The Effectiveness of Policies that Promote Labor Force Participation of Women with Children: A Collection of National Studies (with Steven J. Haider and Helena Skyt Nielsen). Labour Economics, 36: 64-71, October 2015. IZA Discussion Paper 9297.
The Promises and Pitfalls of Universal Early Education. IZA World of Labor 2015: 116, January 2015. [Coverage in The Guardian, Brookings]
Valuing the Vote: The Redistribution of Voting Rights and State Funds Following the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (with Ebonya Washington). The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(1), 376-433, February 2014. Pre-publication version (July 2013) Online appendix [Coverage in The Atlantic, Salon, Vox]
The Impacts of Expanding Access to High-Quality Preschool Education (with Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach). Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2013, 127-178. Online appendix. [Coverage in Reuters]
Local Responses to Federal Grants: Evidence from the Introduction of Title I in the South (with Nora Gordon and Sarah Reber). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(3), 126-159, August 2013. Pre-publication version (July 2012) Online appendix.
The K-12 Education Battle (with Sarah Reber). Chapter 3 in Legacies of the War on Poverty, eds. Martha Bailey and Sheldon Danziger, New York: Russell Sage, 66-92, July 2013. [Coverage in The Atlantic]
The Poverty Gap in School Spending Following the Introduction of Title I (with Sarah Reber). American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings, 103(3), 423-427, May 2013. Pre-publication version (January 2013)
Cracks in the Melting Pot: Immigration, School Choice, and Segregation (with Ethan Lewis). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(3), 91-117, August 2012. Pre-publication version (May 2011) Online appendix
Is Being in School Better? The Impact of School on Children's BMI When Starting Age is Endogenous (with Patricia Anderson, Kristin Butcher, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach). Journal of Health Economics, 30(5), 977-986, September 2011.
Paying for Progress: Conditional Grants and the Desegregation of Southern Schools (with Nora Gordon, Ethan Lewis, and Sarah Reber). The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 445-482, February 2010. Pre-publication version (April 2009) Online appendix.
Maternal Labor Supply and the Introduction of Kindergartens into American Public Schools. The Journal of Human Resources, 44(1), 140-170, Winter 2009. Pre-publication version (December 2007) [Coverage in Reuters]
From Brown to Busing (with Nora Gordon, Ethan Lewis and Sarah Reber). Journal of Urban Economics, 64(2), 296-325, September 2008.
Education and the Age Profile of Literacy into Adulthood (with Damon Clark and Nora Gordon). Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 47-70, Summer 2008.
Schooling and the Armed Forces Qualifying Test: Evidence from School-Entry Laws (with Ethan Lewis). The Journal of Human Resources, 41(2), 294-318, Spring 2006. Pre-publication version (October 2005)
Please check my personal web page
Globalization and the Persistence of Forced Labor and Child Labor published in K.A. Elliott (ed.), Handbook of Globalization and Labor Standards, Edward Elgar, 2022
Child Labor and Economic Development (with C. Theoharides) published in K. F. Zimmermann (ed.), Handbook of Labor, Human resources, and Population Economics, Springer Nature, 2021
Advancing the Agency of Adolescent Girls (with B. Feigenberg and J. Leight) published in Review of Economics and Statistics (2021)
The Short Term Impact of a Productive Asset Transfer in Families with Child Labor: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines (with Caroline Theoharides), Journal of Development Economics 146, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102486
You Get What You Pay For: Schooling Incentives and Child Labor (with Maheshwor Shrestha), Journal of Development Economics 111, 2014, 196-211, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.09.005
Does Minimum Age of Employment Regulation Reduce Child Labor? IZA World of Labor 73, 2014, doi: 10.15185/izawol.73
Independent Child Labor Migrants (with Maheshwor Shrestha) in A. Constant and K Zimmerman (eds.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, Edward Elgar, 2013, 98-120.
The Impact of Minimum Age of Employment Regulation on Child Labor and Schooling (with Maheshwor Shrestha), IZA Journal of Labor Policy 1(14), December 2012.
Poverty Alleviation and Child Labor (with N. Schady), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2011, November 2012
Trade Adjustment and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Indian Tariff Reform (with N. Pavcnik and P. Topalova), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2010, vol. 2(4): 42-75.
Selection into Worst Forms of Child Labor, Research in Labor Economics, 2010, 31, 1-32.
Trade, Child Labor, and Schooling in Poor Countries in G. Porto and B. Hoekman (eds.), Trade Adjustment Costs in Developing Countries: Impacts, Determinants, and Policy Responses, CEPR / World Bank Press, 2010.
Child Labor and the Transition Between School and Work (editor with R. Akee and K. Tatsiramos). London: Emerald, 2010.
Public Health in the Economics of Child Labor in A. Fassa, D. Parker, and T. Scanlon (eds.), Child Labour—A Public Health Perspective, Oxford University Press, 2010.
Child labor and schooling in a globalizing world: Evidence from urban India (with N. Pavcnik and P. Topalova), Journal of the European Economics Association Papers and Proceedings, 2009, 7(2-3), 498-507.
The Economics of Consumer Actions against Products with Child Labor Content in H. Hindman (ed.), The World of Child Labor, M. E. Sharpe Press, 2009, 158-162.
Children's Work and Independent Child Migration: A Critical Review (with M. Shrestha), Innocenti Working Papers 2009—19, Florence: UNICEF, 2009.
Defining Child Labour: A review of the definitions of child labour in policy research / International Labour Office, International Programme on the Elimination of Child Labour (IPEC) - Geneva: ILO, 2009.
Economic Influences on Child Migration Decisions: Evidence from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (with P. Salinger), Indian Growth and Development Review, 2008, 1 (1), 32-56.
Child Labor, Handbook of Development Economics Volume 4, 2008, (also available as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper # 12926
Schooling Costs: The link between tariff reform, poverty, and educational attainment (with N. Pavcnik), VoxEU.org, May 28, 2008.
Child Labor, in K. Reinert, R. Rajan, A. Glass, and L. Davis (eds.), Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press, 2007.
Trade and Child Labour (with N. Pavcnik), VoxEU.org, July 19, 2007.
Alternative Income Generation and Entry into Worst Forms of Child Labor, in Linking Theory and Practice to Eliminate the Worst Forms of Child Labor, (Bureau of International Labor Affairs, U.S. DOL), 2006, pp. 69-114.
Child Labor and Schooling Responses to Anticipated Income in South Africa, Journal of Development Economics, December 2006, 81(2), 386-414, (an earlier version is NBER Working Paper #10265).
A Review of Alessandro Cigno and Furio Rosati's The Economics of Child Labour (Oxford University Press, 2005), The Journal of Economic Literature, December 2006.
Understanding Sibling Differences in Child Labor, Journal of Population Economics, 19(4), October 2006, 795-821.
Trade Liberalization and the Allocation of Labor between Households and Markets in a Poor Country (with N. Pavcnik), Journal of International Economics, July 2006, 69(2), 272-295.
International Trade and Child Labor: Cross-Country Evidence (with N. Pavcnik), Journal of International Economics, January 2006, 115-140.
Rearranging the Family? Household Composition Responses to Large Pension Receipts (with K. Mammen and D. Miller), The Journal of Human Resources 40(1), Winter 2005, 186-207, (an earlier version is NBER Working Paper #10306).
Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status? The Journal of Human Resources 40(1), Winter 2005, 77-99, (an earlier version is NBER Working Paper #10134
The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Child Labor (with N. Pavcnik), Journal of International Economics 65(2), March 2005, 401-419, (an earlier version is NBER Working Paper #8760).
"Distance, Trade, and Income -- The 1967 to 1975 Closing of the Suez Canal as a Natural Experiment," Journal of Development Economics, November 2021. Replication Archive
"Demographics and Productivity in Asia," in Demographics and Innovation in the Asia-Pacific, eds K. Eggleston, J. Park, and G. Shin, Brookings Institution Press, May 2021.
"Trade and Income -- Exploiting Time Series in Geography," AEJ: Applied, October 2019
"Measuring Geographi Spillovers: A Reply," with Erin Mansur and Bruce Sacerdote, American Economic Review, June 2020
"Undergraduate Research in the Dartmouth Economics Department," Journal of Economic Education, Fall 2017.
"Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution", with Erin Mansur and Bruce Sacerdote, American Economic Review, April 2017.
"The Cognitive Effects of Micronutrient Deficiency: Evidence from Salt Iodization in the United States", with Dimitra Politi & David N. Weil, Journal of the European Economic Association, April 2017.
"How Much Would US Style Fiscal Integration Buffer European Unemployment and Income Shocks?", with Bruce Sacerdote, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, May 2013.
"Global Savings and Global Investment – The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks", with Jay Shambaugh, AEJ: Economic Policy, May 2012.
"The US Productivity Slowdown, the Baby Boom, and Management Quality" , Journal of Population Economics, January 2011.
"Colonialism and Modern Income – Islands as Natural Experiments", with Bruce Sacerdote, Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2009.
"Will The Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations", with Bruce Sacerdote and Ariel Stern, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 2008.
"The Marginal Product of Capital", with Francesco Caselli, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007.
"Demographics and Productivity", Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2007.
"Aggregate Evidence on the Link Between Demographics and Productivity", Population and Development Review, March 2008.
"Did The Rust Belt Become Shiny?: A Study of Cities and Counties That Lost Steel and Auto Jobs in the 1980s," with Bruce Sacerdote and Ariel Stern, Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 2007.
"Convergence By Parts," B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, July 2008.
"A Contribution To The Empirics of Total Factor Productivity ," with Shekhar Aiyar, Manuscript.
"Technological Leadership and Endogenous Growth," with Susanto Basu and David N. Weil, Manuscript.
"Zoning Rules! The Economics of Land Use Regulation", Cambridge, Mass: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2015.
Making the Grade: The Economic Evolution of American School Districts. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009.
The Homevoter Hypothesis: How Home Values Influence Local Government Taxation, School Finance, and Land-Use Policies. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001.
Regulatory Takings: Law, Economics, and Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995.
The Economics of Zoning Laws: A Property Rights Approach to American Land Use Controls. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985. (Paperback edition, September 1987)
Book: Pensions in the Health and Retirement Study, with Thomas Steinmeier and Nahid Tabatabai. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2010.
Article: "A Structural Retirement Model," with Thomas Steinmeier, Econometrica, Vol. 54, No. 3 (May, 1986) pp. 555-584.
Article: “The Social Security Early Retirement Age In A Structural Model of Retirement and Wealth,” with Thomas Steinmeier. Journal of Public Economics. Volume 89, Issues 2-3 (February 2005): 441-463.
Article: "Retirement in Dual-Career Families: A Structural Model," with Thomas Steinmeier, Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 18, no. 3 (July, 2000), pp. 503-545.
Article: “What People Don’t Know About Their Pensions and Social Security,” with Thomas Steinmeier. In William G. Gale, John B. Shoven and Mark J. Warshawsky, editors, Private Pensions and Public Policies. 2004. Washington: D.C., Brookings Institution, pp. 57-125.
Article: "Pension Portability and Labor Mobility: Evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation," with Thomas Steinmeier, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 50 (March, 1993) pp. 299-323.
Article: “How Effective Is Redistribution Under The Social Security Benefit Formula?” with Thomas Steinmeier. Journal of Public Economics, (October, 2001) Vol. 82, No. 1, pp. 1-28.
Article: “A Structural Analysis of the Effects of the Great Recession on Retirement and Working Longer by Members of Two-Earner Households”. With Thomas Steinmeier and Nahid Tabatabai. The Journal of the Economics of Aging 12 (2018): 175-182.
Article: “The Role of Health in Retirement”. With Thomas Steinmeier. Research in Labor Economics. 2018 (46): 229-297.
"Nixon and the 1971 import surcharge to achieve an appreciation of foreign currencies" ( January 2013)
"Trade Policy Disaster: Lessons from the 1930s" (MIT Press, 2012)
"Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression" (Princeton University Press, 2011)
"Free Trade Under Fire , 3rd ed." (Princeton University Press, 2009)
"Against the Tide: An Intellectual History of Free Trade" (Princeton University Press, 1996)
“Value and Exchange,” Cato Journal , 24 (2004) 303-339.
“Monetary Analysis, the Equilibrium Method, and Keynes’ General Theory,” Journal of Political Economy , 94 (1986) 1191-1224.
“A Loanable Funds Theory of Unemployment and Monetary Disequilibrium,” American Economic Review , 71 (1981) 859-79.
“The Theory of Search,” with S Shavell, Journal of Economic Theory , 9 (1974) 93-123.
"People and Machines: A Look at The Evolving Relationship Between Capital and Skill In Manufacturing 1860-1930 Using Immigration Shocks." (with Jeanne Lafortune and Jose Tessada). Review of Economics and Statistics, 101(1): March 2019, pp. 30-43.
"Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion" (with Michael A. Clemens and Hannah M. Postel). American Economic Review 108(6): June 2018, pp. 1468-87.
"Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency and the Income Tax After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986" (with Elizabeth Cascio), Journal of Public Economics 172: April 2019 pp. 135-150.
"Immigrant-Native Substitutability and the Role of Language", in David Card and Stephen Raphael, eds., Immigration, Poverty, and Socioeconomic Inequality. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2013.
“Immigration and Production Technology” Annual Review of Economics (5), August 2013.
“Cracks in the Melting Pot: Immigration, School Choice, and Segregation” (with Elizabeth Cascio). American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4(3): August 2012, pp. 91-117.
“Immigration, Skill Mix, and Capital-Skill Complementarity.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (2): May 2011, pp. 1029-1069.
“Should the PC be Considered a Technological Revolution? Evidence from US Metropolitan Areas” (with Paul Beaudry and Mark Doms). Journal of Political Economy 118(5): October 2010, pp. 988-1036.
“Paying For Progress: Conditional Grants and the Desegregation of Southern Schools.” (with Elizabeth Cascio, Nora Gordon, and Sarah Reber). Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(1): February 2010, pp. 445-482.
Local Labor Force Education, New Business Characteristics, and Firm Performance. (with Mark Doms and Alicia Robb). Journal of Urban Economics 67(1): January 2010, pp. 61-67.
From Brown to Busing. (with Elizabeth Cascio, Nora Gordon, and Sarah Reber) Journal of Urban Economics 64(2): September 2008, p. 296-325.
The Impact of Immigration on American Workers and Businesses.Choices 22(1): 1st Quarter 2007, p. 1-7.
The Diffusion of Mexican Immigrants During the 1990s: Explanations and Impacts (with David Card) in George J. Borjas, Ed., Mexican Immigration to the United States. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007, p. 193-227.
Schooling and the AFQT: Evidence from School Entry Laws.(with Elizabeth Cascio). Journal of Human Resources 41(2): Spring 2006, p. 294-318.
Please see my personal website (www.nber.org/~luttmer) for my publications and working papers.
"China's Growth, Stability and Use of International Reserves," with J. Aizenman and Y. Jinjarak, Open Economies Review (25), 407-428, 2014.
"International Risk Sharing During the Globalization Era," with R. Flood and A. Matsumoto, Canadian Journal of Economics 45(2), 394-416, 2012.
"Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," with J. Aizenman, Journal of Macroeconomics 33(4), 524-541, 2011.
"Getting Shut Out of the International Capital Markets: It Doesn't Take Much" with R. Flood, Review of International Economics , Vol. 17, No. 5, 879-889, 2009.
"A Model of the Joint Distribution of Banking and Currency Crises, with R. Flood, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 23, No. 6, 841-865, 2004.
"International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," with Joshua Aizenman, Economic Journal 114, 569-591, 2004.
"The Merits of Horizontal Versus Vertical FDI in the Presence of Uncertainty," with Joshua Aizenman, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 62, No. 1, 125-148, 2004.
"Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," with Robert Flood, Brookings Trade Forum 2001, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1-68, 2002.
"Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions: An Application to Speculative Attacks," with Robert Flood, Journal of International Economics, Jubilee Issue, Vol. 50, No. 1, 245-268, 2000
"Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," with Robert Flood, International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol 4, No. 1, 1-26, 1999.
"Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," with Joshua Aizenman, Economica, Vol. 66, 157-79, 1999.
"Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs," with Michael Klein, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 54, No. 2, 387-404, 1997.
"Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes," with Lars E.O. Svensson, Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 17, No. 1, 15-31, 1984.
"The Transmission of Disturbances Under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing," with Robert Flood, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 43-66, 1982.
"Insulation Properties of Two-Tier Exchange Rates in a Portfolio-Balance Model," Economica, 61-70, 1981.
Please see my personal website (www.paulnovosad.com) for my publications and working papers.
Please see my personal website for my publications and working papers.
"Late Interventions Matter Too: The Case of College Coaching New Hampshire" (with Scott Carrell, May 2013)
"How Much Would US Style Fiscal Integration Buffer European unemployment and Income Shocks? (A Comparative Empirical Analysis)" (with JAmes Feyrer, May 2013)
"From Natural Variation to optimal policy? The importance of endogenous peer group formation" (with Scott Carrell, May 2013)
"Katrina's children: Evidence on the structure of peer effects from hurricane evacuees" (with Scott Imberman and Adriana Kugler), The American Economic Review, Volume 102, Number 5, August 2012, pp. 2048-2082(35)
"Did the Stimulus Stimulate? Effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act" (with James Feyrer, 2012)
"When the saints go marching out: long-term outcomes for student evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita" American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Volume 4, Number 1, January 2012, pp. 109-135(27)
"How Much Would US Style Fiscal Integration Buffer European Unemployment and Income Shocks? (A Comparative Empirical Analysis)," with James Feyrer. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2013.
"Katrina's Children: Evidence on the Structure of Peer Effects," with Scott Imberman and Adriana Kugler. American Economic Review, Vol. 102 No. 5 (August 2012) pp. 2048-82.
"When the Saints Come Marching In: Effects of Katrina Evacuees on Schools, Student Performance and Crime." American Economic Journal, January 2012, Vol 4, No. 1, Pages 109-135.
"The Insurance Value of Financial Aid," Forthcoming in Education Finance and Policy. (with Kristy Fan '17 and Tyler J. Fisher '17)
"[The Contributions of ]James M. Poterba (1958 - )." Forthcoming in Robert A. Cord (ed.) The Palgrave Companion to MIT Economics. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
"Corporate Social Responsibility and Voting over Public Goods," Global Finance Journal 60 (May 2024), 100940. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2024.100940. (with Sophie Wang '22)
"The Survey of Consumer Finances at Forty: Reflections from an Early User." American Statistical Association Joint Statistical Meetings 2023 (September 2023), Toronto, Ontario, Canada. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8311674
"The Economics of Social Entrepreneurship," The Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 53, No. 2 (2022), 176 – 180.
"The Welfare Consequences of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security." American Economic Review, 108 (February 2018), 275 - 307. (with Erzo Luttmer)
"The Digital Commercial Revolution: U.S. Business Sales and the Entrepreneurial Exploitation of Information and Communications Technology," Journal of Technology Transfer, Vol. 49, Issue 2 (April 2024), pp. 401-436, available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-023-10049-3, and the Springer Nature SharedIt Initiative at https://rdcu.be/duIsZ.
"Research Diversity and Invention," Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 62, Issue 2 (March 2023), pp. 179-197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-022-09891-w.
"Government Royalties on Sales of Pharmaceutical and Other Biomedical Products Developed with Substantial Public Funding: Illustrated with the Technology Transfer of the Drug-Eluting Coronary Stent", with Robert S. Danziger, Annals of Science and Technology Policy: Vol. 6: No. 1, online version, September 8, 2021, pp. 1-99; print/paper version, 2022, pp. 1-104.
"Foreign Patents for the Technology Transfer from Laboratories of U.S. Federal Agencies," with David P. Leech, Journal of Technology Transfer, Vol. 47, Issue 4 (August 2022), pp. 937-978.
"Technological Change in the Production of New Scientific Knowledge: A Second Look", with Albert N. Link, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Vol. 30, No. 4 (2021), pp. 371-381.
"Scientific Publications at U.S. Federal Research Laboratories", with Albert N. Link, Scientometrics, Vol. 126, Issue 3 (March 2021), pp. 2227-2248.
"Invention Disclosures and the Slowdown of Scientific Knowledge", with Albert N. Link, Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, Vol. 47, No. 6 (December 2020), pp. 829-833.
"Propensity to Patent and Firm Size for Small R&D-Intensive Firms", with Albert N. Link, Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 52, No. 4 (June 2018), pp. 561-587.
"Commercial Complexity and Entrepreneurial Finance", with Troy J. Scott and Albert N. Link, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Vol. 26, No. 5 (2017), pp. 489-500.
"The Entrepreneur's Idea and Outside Finance: Theory and Evidence about Entrepreneurial Roles," with Troy J. Scott, European Economic Review, Vol. 86 (July 2016), pp. 118-130.
"Standards and Innovation: US Public/Private Partnerships to Support Technology-based Economic Growth", with Troy J. Scott, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Vol. 24, No. 5 (July 2015), pp. 457-489.
"Innovation Rivalry: Theory and Empirics", with Troy J. Scott, Economia e Politica Industriale-Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Vol. 41, No. 1 (March 2014), pp. 25-53.
"Creativity for Invention Insights: Corporate Strategies and Opportunities for Public Entrepreneurship", Economia e Politica Industriale-Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Vol. 43, No. 4 (December 2016), pp. 409-448.
"Public R&D Subsidies, Outside Private Support, and Employment Growth", with Albert N. Link, Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Vol. 22, No. 6 (2013), pp. 537-550.
Employment Growth from Public Support of Innovation in Small Firms, with Albert N. Link (W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 2012).
Public Goods, Public Gains: Calculating the Social Benefits of Public R&D, with Albert N. Link (Oxford University Press, 2011).
"Government as Entrepreneur: Evaluating the Commercialization Success of SBIR Projects", with Albert N. Link, Research Policy, Vol. 39, No. 5 (June 2010), pp. 589-601.
"Competition in Research and Development: A Theory for Contradictory Predictions", Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 34, No. 2 (March 2009), pp. 153-171.
"Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government-sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?", with Albert N. Link, Economica, Vol. 76, No. 302 (April 2009), pp. 264-281.
"The National Cooperative Research and Production Act," and "Multimarket Contact", in Issues in Competition Law and Policy, Vol. II, Wayne D. Collins, ed. (American Bar Association, 2008), pp. 1297-1317, 1553-1573.
"Universities as Research Partners", with Bronwyn H. Hall and Albert N. Link, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, No. 2 (May 2003), pp. 485-491.
Purposive Diversification and Economic Performance (Cambridge University Press, 1993 and 2005).
Market Structure and Technological Change, with William L. Baldwin (Harwood Academic Publishers, 1987; Routledge, 2001; Taylor & Francis eBooks, 2013; paper, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2014).
"Beyond Firm and Industry Effects on Profitability in Imperfect Markets", with George Pascoe, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68, No. 2 (May 1986), pp. 284-292.
"Firm Versus Industry Variability in R&D Intensity", in R&D, Patents, and Productivity, ed. Zvi Griliches, chapter 10, pp. 233-245 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1984).
"Multimarket Contact and Economic Performance", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, No. 3 (August 1982), pp. 368-375.
"Scale Economies in Research and Development: the Schumpeterian Hypothesis", with Meir G. Kohn, Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 30, No. 3 (March 1982), pp. 239-249.
"Examining Selection Pressures in the Publication Process Through the Lens of Sniff Tests" (with Ran Zhuo), Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
"Can Operation Warp Speed Serve as a Model for Accelerating Innovations Beyond COVID Vaccines?" (with Arielle D'Souza, Kendall Hoyt, and Alec Stapp), Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and
the Economy, forthcoming.
"Quantifying the Social Value of a Universal COVID-19 Vaccine and Incentivizing Its Development" (with Rachel Glennerster, Thomas Kelly, and Claire McMahon), Review of Economic Design, forthcoming.
Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions (with Walter Nicholson), 13th edition, Cengage, forthcoming 2025, 800 pages.
"Optimal Vaccine Subsidies for Epidemic Diseases" (with Matthew Goodkin-Gold, Michael Kremer, and Heidi Williams), Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2024, 106 (4): 895-909.
"An Optimal Mechanism to Fund the Development of Vaccines Against Emerging Epidemics" (with Kendall Hoyt and Dimitrios Gouglas), Journal of Health Economics, September 2023, 91 (102795): 1–22.
Please see my Personal Website for my publications and working papers.
“Sources of Inefficiency in Healthcare and Education,” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 2016, 106(5):383-387 (with Amitabh Chandra).
"Association Between Having a Highly Educated Spouse and Physician Practice in Rural Underserved Areas,” JAMA, 2016, 315(9):939-941 (with Samuel Marshall, David Goodman, David Auerbach, and Peter Buerhaus).
“Technology Diffusion and Productivity Growth in Health Care,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 2015, 97(5):951-964 (with Jonathan Skinner).
“Teacher Effects and Teacher-Related Policies,” Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 6, forhcoming (with Kirabo Jackson and Jonah Rockoff).
“School Choice, School Quality and Postsecondary Attainment,” American Economic Review, 2014, 104(3):991-1013 (with Dave Deming, Justine Hastings, and Thomas Kane).
“The Nursing Workforce in an Era of Health Care Reform,” New England Journal of Medicine, 2013, 368(16):1470-1472 (with David Auerbach, Ulrike Muench and Peter Buerhaus).
“Have We Identified Effective Teachers? Validating Measures of Effective Teaching Using Random Assignment,” MET Project Research Paper, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, January 2013 (with Thomas Kane, Daniel McCaffrey, and Trey Miller).
“Information and Employee Evaluation: Evidence from a Randomized Intervention in Public Schools,” American Economic Review, 102(7):3184-3213, 2012 (with Jonah Rockoff, Tom Kane and Eric Taylor).
“Longitudinal Determinants of End-of-Life Wealth” Journal of Public Economics, 162:78-88 June 2018. (with J. Poterba and D. Wise)
"The Asset Cost of Poor Health" Journal of the Economics of Aging, 9:172-184, June 2017. (with J. Poterba and D. Wise)
“What Determines End-of-Life Assets: A Retrospective View” Insights in the Economics of Aging. University of Chicago Press. 2017 (with J. Poterba and D. Wise)
"The Long Reach of Education: Health and DI Participation" Journal of the Economics of Aging, 6:133-148, December 2015. (with David Wise)
Stratmann, Thomas and Welborn, John W. "Informed short selling, fails-to-deliver, and abnormal returns." Journal of Empirical Finance 38.A (2016): 81-102, ISSN 0927-5398, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.05.006.
Stratmann, Thomas, and Welborn, John W. "The Options Market Maker Exception to SEC Regulation SHO." Journal of Financial Markets 16.2 (2013): 195–226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2012.04.002.
Stratmann, Thomas and Welborn, John W. "Exchange-Traded Funds, Fails-to-Deliver, and Market Volatility" (November 30, 2012). GMU Working Paper in Economics No. 12-59. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2183251 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2183251.
Welborn, John W. "The Phantom Shares' Menace." Regulation 31:1 (2008), https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/regulation/2008/2/v31n1-7.pdf.
How Much Does Size Erode Mutual Fund Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach Review of Finance, 2021 (with Jon Reuter)
An Event Long-Short Index: Theory and Applications American Economic Review -- Insights, 2019 (with Ray Fisman)
The 'Standard Error' of Event Studies: Lessons from the 2016 Election, American Economic Association Papers & Proceedings, 2018 (with Justin Wolfers)
* Incorporates material from "What Do Financial Markets Think of the 2016 Election" (with Justin Wolfers)
Wintertime for Deceptive Advertising? American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2016 (with Jonathan Zinman)
Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X, Review of Economics Studies, 2015 (with Bo Cowgill)
*Incorporates material from Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google (with Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers)
Should Benchmark Indices Have Alpha? Revisiting Performance Evaluation Critical Finance Review, 2013 (with Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto)
Forensic Economics Journal of Economic Literature, 2012
When Should Firms Share Credit With Employees? Evidence from Anonymously Managed Mutual Funds, Journal of Financial Economics, 2010 (with Massimo Massa and Jonathan Reuter)